Second Mountain Top Finish - Another Day for Alberto Contador

Sunday's stage of the Tour de France is going to be a race for the yellow between two men, and they are on the same team-Astana. Though Alberto Contador and Lance Armstrong both want to ride into yellow at the finish on the 1st category Verbier climb, there are still a lot of questions as to how the team strategy is going to play out and if they both go all in for a race to the top, which one of them will have the better legs. The climb is almost nine kilometers long, with an average gradient of 7.1 percent. This is a tougher climb than the only other mountain top finish the Tour has had so far, where Contador attacked late on the final ascent and took just shy of 20 seconds from Lance, moving himself a couple seconds ahead in the overall classification.

One thing's for certain, it's really inconsequential that the Italian Rinaldo Nocentini is leading the race by six seconds over Contador and eight seconds over Armstrong. If there is any battle on the final climb on Sunday, which there very well should be, Nocentini's time in the coveted yellow jersey of the worlds biggest bicycle race will be long gone at the finish.

Today, American George Hincapie had a smart ride, infiltrating the break of no-hopers in the overall battle, and he almost rode himself into the yellow jersey by the finish, coming up a scant five seconds short of dethroning Nocentini. It would have been a coup for the former team mate of Armstrong, who now rides for the incredibly successful Columbia-HTC team based in San Louis Obispo, CA-the same team of the sprinting sensation Mark Cavendish, winner of four stages of this year's Tour already-as well as a slew of other talented riders who all appear to be willing to lie down on the tracks for each other should they feel it would help a team mate to win. But George is a smart professional, with no delusions about his chances on the final climb tomorrow-he's going to loose at least a couple minutes, and he knows it. Still, what a treat it would have been for him, his team and all his legions of fans to see Big George in the yellow jersey for a day.

Here's the battle for the overall. Note the very small gaps at the top of the standings:

1. Rinaldo Nocentini (Ag2r-La Mondiale) in 58:13:52
2. George Hincapie (Columbia-HTC) at 00:05
3. Alberto Contador (Astana) at 00:06
4. Lance Armstrong (Astana) at 00:08
5. Christophe Le Mevel (Francaise Des Jeux) at 00:43
6. Bradley Wiggins (Garmin - Slipstream) at 00:46
7. Andréas Klöden (Astana) at 00:54
8. Tony Martin (Columbia - HTC) at 01:00
9. Christian Vande Velde (Garmin - Slipstream) at 01:24
10. Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) at 01:49

So, what do I expect to happen Sunday? Nocentini loses the jersey to Contador. Hincapie falls out of the top five, and Armstrong loses ground on Contador-why you ask, would the seven time Tour winner lose time to his team mate? He just doesn't have the ability to accelerate with the Spaniard, and the Spaniard is here to win the Tour. Lance would love to win, but he will lose time Sunday, and next Saturday on the dreaded Mont Ventoux. This is a true beast of a climb at 21.6 km in length with an average grade of 7.6 percent. For folks not too familiar with how steep that is, let's just say that it is a very formidable climb, and any mountain top finish sends the fireworks flying so this is going to be a day to remember with one day to go in the Tour de France. This is an historic first for the Tour to have a climb like the Ventoux with only one day of racing to follow into Paris.

When the attacks come on the Verbier, both Lance and Contador will mark them, because neither wants to give time to the other. But when the going gets rough, I simply don't see Armstrong having the suds to follow Contador's hardest accelerations. And, I don't see Contador sitting back and following the wheels of others to the top of the mountain. At some point, after things have been whittled down with the group of contenders, Contador will strike out on his own to gain more time on his rivals (not just Lance), so that he has a greater buffer for the upcoming 40 km individual TT. Even though Lance might out ride Contador in the TT, he probably can't gain enough time to compensate for the final two mountaintop finishes of the race, where he's almost certain to lose time.

Lance's only chance to win the Tour, comes if his team mate Contador cracks tomorrow or next Saturday on the Ventoux, and if Lance puts together a great time trial in Annecy on Thursday. Anything is possible with Contador, he looked to be a shoe-in for the win earlier this year at the Paris-Nice stage race only to succumb to another dreaded part of bike racing-hunger knock. In a day which saw fast and aggressive racing right from the gun, he simply didn't get enough calories and liquids into his system, and he cracked on the final climb. It's an easy mistake to make, especially when the racing is fast, and you're constantly fighting for position and trying to manage everything which is going on in the race. And without proper nutrition, your body simply shuts down. These are the type of mistakes which can cost any rider the victory, no matter how great they are.

To his credit, Lance appears to be headed for his peak form of the year during the final week of the Tour. His coach, Chris Carmichael, says he expects Lance to be on his best form of the year this week. And, one can never discount how dominant Lance was in the Tour before he retired after his 7th win in 2005, but even for Lance the cards are stacked against him. I don't have access to his power-to-weight ratio numbers, which is largely what makes the difference on a finishing climb, but it's hard to imagine that in a head-to-head battle Lance can ride with Contador when the chips are down. It will all be settled in the next eight days and then the world will know just how well Lance has bounced back from retirement.

Next year, all bets are off should Lance again put his full attention on winning the Tour.