A Rare Double Tactical Mistake By Team Astana

Today's stage of the Tour de France was the day with the single toughest profile of the entire Tour, and since the course was either up or down virtually all day, team Astana knew it would be the toughest day of the entire 21 days of racing to control. Here's the profile:

After an early group was finally allowed to escape on the first climb of the day, things settled down with team Astana riding a controlled pace at the front of the peloton to keep the break in check. By the time everyone had crested the top of the second climb, they had already climbed over 6,000', and they still had three categorized climbs to contend with before the finish.

Here's how the race for the overall looked going into the day:

1	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana	67:33:15
2	Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana	0:01:37
3	Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream	0:01:46
4	Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana	0:02:17
5	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	0:02:26
6	Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas	0:02:51
7	Christophe Le Mevel (Fra) Française des Jeux	0:03:09
8	Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	0:03:25
9	Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Cervelo Test Team	0:03:52
10	Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin - Slipstream	0:03:59

All appeared to be going according to plan for the Astana team, as their efforts and the efforts of team Saxo Bank slowly whittled down the main field of the remaining contenders for the overall in this year's race. When the pack arrived on the bottom slopes of the penultimate climb of the day, the Col de Romme, there were only about 30 strongmen left. After a series of attacks which began with last year's Tour de France winner, Carlos Sastre, and ended with Andy Schleck, last year's best young rider, the pecking order had been established - two groups of four were left to settle the score: in the leading group were the brothers Andy and Frank Schleck accompanied by teammates Alberto Contador and Andreas Kloden; the second group contained Lance Armstrong, teammates Brad Wiggins and Christian Vande Velde, along with Vincenzo Nibali. Having eight of the top 10 riders in the overall battle represented in these two groups, it was clear that the race was in full attack mode.

With Armstrong playing the perfect teammate to Contador and Kloden who were up the road, all he needed to do was to follow the wheel of Wiggins. Wiggins is the most dangerous adversary for team Astana in the 25 mile individual time trial tomorrow, and this played perfectly into the hands of Astana by distancing two of their men from Wiggins. With Lance saving energy by following in the draft of the chasing Vande Velde and Wiggins, and Contador and Kloden getting the same free ride up ahead since it was up to the Schleck brothers to drive the pace to gain time on the Wiggins group, Astana were literally sitting pretty as the two groups crested the top of the climb.

All looked to be going pretty much according to plan, when on the final climb, suddenly, Contador made the first mistake for the team - he attacked the Schlecks, and in the process dropped his teammate, Kloden. He realized his error, but the damage was done and the brothers Schleck poured on the gas to get rid of the German. Meanwhile, Lance made a smart move by waiting for Vande Velde and Wiggins (the man called Wiggo) to run their gas tanks right up to empty, then he sprang clear toward the top of the climb. With Armstrong closing on Kloden, it was a judgement call to decide if you have Kloden sit up at the top to join forces with Armstrong, or not. Kloden crests the top 1:19 behind the three leaders, and 52 seconds ahead of Armstrong - still a sizable gap so maybe not time to sit up and wait. But, on the descent, Kloden continues to loose time on the leaders, and to Armstrong. Now it's time to wait for Lance, in the hopes that they can do a better job of minimizing their losses together, and further distance themselves from Wiggo who's chasing behind. It does the team no good to have Kloden and Armstrong bombing the descent individually, only to have them come together at the finish! This was where Astana makes their second mistake of the day. Kloden pressed on, alone, and was caught by Armstrong in the final mile - both guys wasting valuable energy and losing valuable time in the process of not being together to share the pacemaking.

It was surprising to see a team of this stature and experience make these mistakes today. What appeared to be the case was that both Contador and Kloden rode selfishly, Contador hoping for a stage win and Kloden wanting to pass Armstrong in the overall battle before tomorrow's critical TT. Armstrong, on the other hand, impressed me with his selfless teamwork by not responding to the move which had two of his team mates in it on the penultimate climb, just as he did yesterday. And that deference is impressive indeed, coming from a man who hasn't entered a Tour de France he hasn't won in his last seven starts.

Here's how the overall battle looks now:

1. Alberto Contador (Astana) at 72:27:09
2. Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) at 02:26
3. Frank Schleck (Saxo Bank) at 03:25
4. Lance Armstrong (Astana) at 03:55
5. Andreas Kloden (Astana) at 04:44
6. Bradley Wiggins (Garmin - Slipstream) at 04:53
7. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) at 05:09
8. Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Slipstream) at 08:08

Looking to tomorrow's TT, Wiggo gains time on all of the contenders, Lance outperforms everyone except Wiggins, followed by Contador and Kloden. This is my prediction of the GC picture following the stage, barring incident:

1. Alberto Contador

2. Lance Armstrong

3. Bradley Wiggins

4. Andreas Kloden

5. Andy Schleck

The real shame of it is that todays oversight just might have cost Andreas Kloden and team Astana the chance to have all three places on the final podium in Paris - something which hasn't happened for one team since 1914.

The rest of this week is going to be one heck of a battle, but Contador should finish in Paris in yellow, and Lance should also be on the podium.